Every good prognosticator should go back once and a while and see how he did. At least if you have the guts! So here's what I said on the New Year's Day 2009 marked with ">" and in-line comments in "[]"
>Will 2009 be worse than 2008? I'll go out on a limb and say no it won't. Here are my reasons:
>1) As core commodity prices drop, especially energy, suddenly a lot of unprofitable businesses become profitable again. For example, airlines.
[Thing stayed low for a bit but not anymore as the China and other emerging markets continue to grow.]
>2) As much as the main-stream press wanted a recession on Bush's watch, the press is not going to let Obama and a Democratic congress suffer the same fate. There will be more economic cheerleading the minute there is any good news that can somehow be linked to an Obama policy (whether true or not).
[Well things have gotten worse, but certainly there was a lot of economic cheerleading initially. How many headlines have you seen that say something unexpectedly got worse, or where the lead of the article is an effort to find the silver lining in bad economic news. . .any positive that can be spun to say things will be better next week? more on that later]
>3) Obama's economic team isn't going to be as radical as some (including I) fear, and the Republican filibuster capability in the Senate as well as public disdain for bailouts, will throttle back some of what could have been excesses.
[Well got the filibuster bit wrong! I didn't think Franken had a chance! And it's not the Obama economic team that's matters at the moment but everyone else in the Obama administration who do seem to be fairly far left]
>4) Things weren't actually that bad - even jobless claims slumped much more than expected - 492,000 new unemployment claims last month vs. 586,000 the month before.
[Well that was true at the time, but it has gotten worse!]
>5) If so many think things will be bad in 2009, then chances are the opposite will happen.
[Got that wrong!]
>Will things be dicey? Sure. I'm not jumping in to buy stocks now. But soon there will be many buying opportunities. It could still go all pear-shaped, if for example Obama and Congress raise taxes, or print money to bailout UAW fat-cats. But here's hoping Obama actually wants a 2nd term. If he doesn't blow it, he might actually get that!
[Well that's the money quote! I was right about the stock market. You'd have made out like a bandit if you got in on the multiple buying opportunities. I also got it that if Obama and Congress pursue anti-growth policies, exactly as has happened, that the economy would go badly!]
Well there it is. I was too optimistic that Obama and Democrats in Congress wouldn't be complete economic illiterates. That'll teach me.
