It was a perfect way to spend part of the first holiday during Golden Week!
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Roppongi Hills Spring Pictures
It was another beautiful spring day in Tokyo. Here are a few more pictures taken with my 3.2 megapixel cell phone camera (an NTT Docomo FOMA SH903i) at Roppongi Hills on Tuesday.
It was a perfect way to spend part of the first holiday during Golden Week!
It was a perfect way to spend part of the first holiday during Golden Week!
Monday, April 28, 2008
Golden Week Reading
The end of April and the beginning of May mark the Golden Week holidays in Japan. We have public holidays on April 29th (Showa day - the former emperor's birthday), May 3 (Constitution Memorial day), May 4 (Greenery day - celebrated on the 6th) and May 5 (Children's day). So starting this week we get basically a week off. It's a good time for reading and blogging. Here are a few articles I've enjoyed in recent days
George Will has questions for Obama. Here's my favorite representing statistics that span Michelle Obama's and my lifetimes (we were born in the same year): Since 1960, real per capita income has increased 143 percent, life expectancy has increased by seven years, infant mortality has declined 74 percent, deaths from heart disease have been halved, childhood leukemia has stopped being a death sentence, depression has become a treatable disease, air and water pollution have been drastically reduced, the number of women earning a bachelor's degree has more than doubled, the rate of homeownership has increased 10.2 percent, the size of the average American home has doubled, the percentage of homes with air conditioning has risen from 12 to 77, the portion of Americans who own shares of stock has quintupled … Has your wife perhaps missed some pertinent developments in this country that she calls "just downright mean"?
Mark Steyn I wish I could write like this guy! Here's a key line on the war-as-metaphor phraseology (reference Time Magazine's recent cover on Global Warming): If the tree-raising is Iwo Jima, a one-degree increase isn’t exactly Pearl Harbor. But General Stengel wants us to engage in preemptive war. The editors of Time would be the first to deplore such saber-rattling applied to, say, Iran’s nuclear program, but it has become the habit of progressive opinion to appropriate the language of war for everything but actual war.
Jonah Goldberg has more: This is the atmosphere Time is helping to poison, with pollutants far worse than mere greenhouse gasses.
P.J. O'Rourke is another writer I can't touch. Here is writing about a visit to a US aircraft carrier: Landing on an aircraft carrier was the most fun I'd ever had with my trousers on. And the 24 hours that I spent aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt--the "Big Stick"--were an equally unalloyed pleasure. I love big, moving machinery. And machinery doesn't get any bigger, or more moving, than a U.S.-flagged nuclear-powered aircraft carrier that's longer than the Empire State Building is tall and possesses four acres of flight deck. This four acres, if it were a nation, would have the fifth or sixth largest airforce in the world--86 fixed wing aircraft plus helicopters.
Michelle Malkin in good form: The world works as well as it does–and, granted, that’s pretty marginal–in large part because the United States guarantees the security of its allies. Places like Taiwan and South Korea churn out magic toilets and miniature automobiles knowing that the United States will respond to incursions and aggression with overwhelming and sustained force. So far, our defense of the fledgling Iraqi government has confirmed that arrangement.
I could go on. . .but all this talent is depressing me. Well actually not. It's my perogative as a blogger to be lazy, and when short of ideas of my own, simply link to someone else!
George Will has questions for Obama. Here's my favorite representing statistics that span Michelle Obama's and my lifetimes (we were born in the same year): Since 1960, real per capita income has increased 143 percent, life expectancy has increased by seven years, infant mortality has declined 74 percent, deaths from heart disease have been halved, childhood leukemia has stopped being a death sentence, depression has become a treatable disease, air and water pollution have been drastically reduced, the number of women earning a bachelor's degree has more than doubled, the rate of homeownership has increased 10.2 percent, the size of the average American home has doubled, the percentage of homes with air conditioning has risen from 12 to 77, the portion of Americans who own shares of stock has quintupled … Has your wife perhaps missed some pertinent developments in this country that she calls "just downright mean"?
Mark Steyn I wish I could write like this guy! Here's a key line on the war-as-metaphor phraseology (reference Time Magazine's recent cover on Global Warming): If the tree-raising is Iwo Jima, a one-degree increase isn’t exactly Pearl Harbor. But General Stengel wants us to engage in preemptive war. The editors of Time would be the first to deplore such saber-rattling applied to, say, Iran’s nuclear program, but it has become the habit of progressive opinion to appropriate the language of war for everything but actual war.
Jonah Goldberg has more: This is the atmosphere Time is helping to poison, with pollutants far worse than mere greenhouse gasses.
P.J. O'Rourke is another writer I can't touch. Here is writing about a visit to a US aircraft carrier: Landing on an aircraft carrier was the most fun I'd ever had with my trousers on. And the 24 hours that I spent aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt--the "Big Stick"--were an equally unalloyed pleasure. I love big, moving machinery. And machinery doesn't get any bigger, or more moving, than a U.S.-flagged nuclear-powered aircraft carrier that's longer than the Empire State Building is tall and possesses four acres of flight deck. This four acres, if it were a nation, would have the fifth or sixth largest airforce in the world--86 fixed wing aircraft plus helicopters.
Roger Kimball has fun with the New York Times reporting on John McCain: Here’s how the Times structures its non-stories about John McCain:
1. Prissy introductory sentence or two noting that Mr. McCain has a reputation [read “unearned reputation”] for taking the ethical high road on issues like campaign finance reform. 2. “The-Times-has-learned” sentence intimating some tort or misbehavior.
3. A paragraph or two of exposition that simultaneously reveals that a) Mr. McCain actually didn’t do anything wrong but b) he would have if only the law had been different and besides everyone knows he is guilty in spirit.
Michelle Malkin in good form: The world works as well as it does–and, granted, that’s pretty marginal–in large part because the United States guarantees the security of its allies. Places like Taiwan and South Korea churn out magic toilets and miniature automobiles knowing that the United States will respond to incursions and aggression with overwhelming and sustained force. So far, our defense of the fledgling Iraqi government has confirmed that arrangement.
I could go on. . .but all this talent is depressing me. Well actually not. It's my perogative as a blogger to be lazy, and when short of ideas of my own, simply link to someone else!
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Food Shortages in Japan? What?
This article picked up by Instapundit from the Australian paper The Age leaves me scratching my head. Food shortages in Japan? Government grain reserves being used up? No butter on the shelves? What?
Well from where I sit, in Japan, there is plenty of food. Recently, I have been regularly travelling back and forth between Tokyo and suburban Nagoya and I can't find any evidence of a problem. Furthermore, none of my Japanese friends and colleagues (an admittedly unscientific sample) have heard of this. I'm not discounting the facts of the story, but the doomsday warnings seem a bit overblown.
First of all, the foods mentioned in The Age article, butter, breads, cakes, and meat, aren't fundamentally staple to the Japanese diet. At least not historically. Japanese even occassionally make fun of Westerners by joking that we smell like butter (which after years living here I daresay is somewhat true!) When I worked at Hitachi some 16 years ago, I had colleagues that were impressed that I ate bread for breakfast, as the concept was still a bit foreign to them.
I'd say that the Japanese public is more concerned about safety issues with food from China, which parallel a six-fold increase in food imports over the last decade. Recently, a scare relating to tainted dumplings from China, which may indeed have been tampered with in Japan, resulted in a massive drop in food imports from China. For example as reported here and here. This will probably sort itself out, but could have a short term impact on food availability and prices.
For the last decade, Japan has had a near deflationary economy. As a result food prices have been stable. As the economy now slowly begins to expand, certainly some prices may also begin to rise. The yen remains strong (at least compared to the US dollar) and savings rates are high. There is no crisis.
But the real issue is that Japan still tightly regulates and controls massive sectors of agriculture. A decade after significant global efforts to open up agricultural imports, rice is still some 4 to 5 times more expensive than global prices. Only about 8% of the Japanese rice market is imported, and most of this is warehoused and used for food aid, or making sake. More on this here. Furthermore Japan exports rice to China. Admittedly this is specialty rice and not that much overall, but how dire a situation is it if Japan is able to export a staple product?
More basically, liberalization of food imports and an end to subsidized farming that artificially raises prices would resolve the problem overnight, albeit at substantial pain to aging Japanese farmers who remain a powerful support bloc for the ruling Liberal Democractic Party. Thus don't expect change anytime soon. Japan has plenty of cash (due to a high savings rate) to weather a short term storm.
But here's a few things to remember when reading such news from Japan:
1) Like many countries, the agriculture industry is highly protected and subsidized. Any analysis of food trends needs to consider the impact of liberalization of agriculture as a potential solution.
2) There are vested domestic interests that oppose imports in favor of domestic subsidies. It isn't too far a stretch to say that some far-right elements might even be opposed to the changes in diet (more bread and meat) versus a more traditional Japanese diet (more rice, fish, etc. ).
3) Japan has an aging and potentially declining population, but a high savings rate and remains a net overall exporter. If Japan could sustain itself before, that certainly isn't going to change in the near term, even with rising prices.
I think Glenn Reynolds is right when he says: "This is getting a lot of (probably exaggerated) attention in the survivalosphere. Those folks are like Paul Krugman, having predicted 9 of the last 0 food crises, but the news story, at least, is real."
I'm not at all worried where my next meal in Japan is coming from.
Update: Thanks Glenn (Instapundit) for the link and welcome all! Feel free to look around!
Update 2: Not about Japan, and at the risk of asking the completely obvious, but where does (via Reuters) Chavez get off blaming food shortages on capitalism? The guy who couldn't keep basic staples on the shelves, even with massive oil money subsidies, is in no position to lecture anyone about how to feed the masses. That would be like like asking Zimbabwe's Mugabe about how to tame inflation! Perhaps it is to be expected that Chavez would mouth off like that. But does Reuters really need to report on it quite so prominently, as if Chavez is making some insightful comment that somehow passed everyone else by? Yeah I know, I really shouldn't be surprised about Reuters' reporting either. . .
Well from where I sit, in Japan, there is plenty of food. Recently, I have been regularly travelling back and forth between Tokyo and suburban Nagoya and I can't find any evidence of a problem. Furthermore, none of my Japanese friends and colleagues (an admittedly unscientific sample) have heard of this. I'm not discounting the facts of the story, but the doomsday warnings seem a bit overblown.
First of all, the foods mentioned in The Age article, butter, breads, cakes, and meat, aren't fundamentally staple to the Japanese diet. At least not historically. Japanese even occassionally make fun of Westerners by joking that we smell like butter (which after years living here I daresay is somewhat true!) When I worked at Hitachi some 16 years ago, I had colleagues that were impressed that I ate bread for breakfast, as the concept was still a bit foreign to them.
I'd say that the Japanese public is more concerned about safety issues with food from China, which parallel a six-fold increase in food imports over the last decade. Recently, a scare relating to tainted dumplings from China, which may indeed have been tampered with in Japan, resulted in a massive drop in food imports from China. For example as reported here and here. This will probably sort itself out, but could have a short term impact on food availability and prices.
For the last decade, Japan has had a near deflationary economy. As a result food prices have been stable. As the economy now slowly begins to expand, certainly some prices may also begin to rise. The yen remains strong (at least compared to the US dollar) and savings rates are high. There is no crisis.
But the real issue is that Japan still tightly regulates and controls massive sectors of agriculture. A decade after significant global efforts to open up agricultural imports, rice is still some 4 to 5 times more expensive than global prices. Only about 8% of the Japanese rice market is imported, and most of this is warehoused and used for food aid, or making sake. More on this here. Furthermore Japan exports rice to China. Admittedly this is specialty rice and not that much overall, but how dire a situation is it if Japan is able to export a staple product?
More basically, liberalization of food imports and an end to subsidized farming that artificially raises prices would resolve the problem overnight, albeit at substantial pain to aging Japanese farmers who remain a powerful support bloc for the ruling Liberal Democractic Party. Thus don't expect change anytime soon. Japan has plenty of cash (due to a high savings rate) to weather a short term storm.
But here's a few things to remember when reading such news from Japan:
1) Like many countries, the agriculture industry is highly protected and subsidized. Any analysis of food trends needs to consider the impact of liberalization of agriculture as a potential solution.
2) There are vested domestic interests that oppose imports in favor of domestic subsidies. It isn't too far a stretch to say that some far-right elements might even be opposed to the changes in diet (more bread and meat) versus a more traditional Japanese diet (more rice, fish, etc. ).
3) Japan has an aging and potentially declining population, but a high savings rate and remains a net overall exporter. If Japan could sustain itself before, that certainly isn't going to change in the near term, even with rising prices.
I think Glenn Reynolds is right when he says: "This is getting a lot of (probably exaggerated) attention in the survivalosphere. Those folks are like Paul Krugman, having predicted 9 of the last 0 food crises, but the news story, at least, is real."
I'm not at all worried where my next meal in Japan is coming from.
Update: Thanks Glenn (Instapundit) for the link and welcome all! Feel free to look around!
Update 2: Not about Japan, and at the risk of asking the completely obvious, but where does (via Reuters) Chavez get off blaming food shortages on capitalism? The guy who couldn't keep basic staples on the shelves, even with massive oil money subsidies, is in no position to lecture anyone about how to feed the masses. That would be like like asking Zimbabwe's Mugabe about how to tame inflation! Perhaps it is to be expected that Chavez would mouth off like that. But does Reuters really need to report on it quite so prominently, as if Chavez is making some insightful comment that somehow passed everyone else by? Yeah I know, I really shouldn't be surprised about Reuters' reporting either. . .
Update 4/24/2008: There was plenty of food at this restaurant in Chita Handa owned by a former sumo wrestler. Lots of chanko nabe (that's what sumo wrestlers eat to bulk up) and beer served by the liter!
Monday, April 21, 2008
The Problem With Intelligent Design
Ben Stein's new movie Expelled: The Movie, which I've not yet seen (Ed Morrissey had a nice review here), raises the issue of intolerance in academia by analysing issues around the study of Intelligent Design. That's a good excuse for me to revisit my issue with the Intelligent Design argument:
Complexity is not proof of intelligence.
Quite the contrary, simplicity is the hallmark of genius. Einstein, in the process of explaining gravity, turned Maxwell's complicated equations of electromagnetism into one elegant 4-dimensional equation. Darwin explained the origin of species as one elegant process of evolution by natural selection. Neither Einstein, Maxwell nor Darwin prove or disprove the existence of God. But if there is a proof of the divine to be found in nature, I suspect it can be seen more in the power of the human mind to contemplate it all in the first place rather than in any misplaced sense of what constitutes proof.
Here's something I wrote about this a few years back on another (now defunct) blog:
Intelligent Design seems poised to challenge the science of evolution in US schools, most recently in Kansas. As I understand it, proponents of Intelligent Design argue that life is so complex that it can only have come into existence as a result of a considered plan. For example, if you found a watch buried in a field, you would not infer that such a complex mechanism came into existence through a series of slight, random modifications. On the contrary, you would infer that an intelligent force planned the design.
The premise of Intelligent Design seems to me to be fundamentally flawed. It assumes that complexity equals intelligence. I would argue the opposite, i.e. that the hallmark of intelligence is simplicity. Elegance in design comes from simplification, not complexity. The same is true of great physics: for example, Einstein reduced previously complex descriptions of light and gravity into a few simple equations, culminating in the insight that E=mc^2. Anyone who has tried to create something truly great must learn that it takes incredible intelligence to make complex things simple. The simpler the design, the longer it will last, the more powerful the impact, and the greater its ease of use.
If we posit that intelligence leads to simplification, and that intelligent designers seek simplicity as a means to enhance survivability, then we are lead to the following conclusion: the complexity inherent in life inevitably leads to the conclusion that it was not designed by an intelligence. Indeed, the conclusion that a random series of events, that survive due to a process of natural selection, is a simpler explanation than Intelligent Design.
Let's restate my argument somewhat: simplicity is a better argument for intelligence than complexity. Evolution by natural selection is a simpler explanation for the origin of species than complexity as a result of an Intelligent Designer. Thus, the theory of evolution may be a better argument for the hand of the divine in the processes of nature than an examination of the end results of evolution as evidence of complexity. The simplicity of Darwin's argument, backed up by meticulously collected evidence, is a testatment to Darwin's genius, and equally a testatement to the genius of whatever set this all in motion!
Complexity is not proof of intelligence.
Quite the contrary, simplicity is the hallmark of genius. Einstein, in the process of explaining gravity, turned Maxwell's complicated equations of electromagnetism into one elegant 4-dimensional equation. Darwin explained the origin of species as one elegant process of evolution by natural selection. Neither Einstein, Maxwell nor Darwin prove or disprove the existence of God. But if there is a proof of the divine to be found in nature, I suspect it can be seen more in the power of the human mind to contemplate it all in the first place rather than in any misplaced sense of what constitutes proof.
Here's something I wrote about this a few years back on another (now defunct) blog:
Intelligent Design seems poised to challenge the science of evolution in US schools, most recently in Kansas. As I understand it, proponents of Intelligent Design argue that life is so complex that it can only have come into existence as a result of a considered plan. For example, if you found a watch buried in a field, you would not infer that such a complex mechanism came into existence through a series of slight, random modifications. On the contrary, you would infer that an intelligent force planned the design.
The premise of Intelligent Design seems to me to be fundamentally flawed. It assumes that complexity equals intelligence. I would argue the opposite, i.e. that the hallmark of intelligence is simplicity. Elegance in design comes from simplification, not complexity. The same is true of great physics: for example, Einstein reduced previously complex descriptions of light and gravity into a few simple equations, culminating in the insight that E=mc^2. Anyone who has tried to create something truly great must learn that it takes incredible intelligence to make complex things simple. The simpler the design, the longer it will last, the more powerful the impact, and the greater its ease of use.
If we posit that intelligence leads to simplification, and that intelligent designers seek simplicity as a means to enhance survivability, then we are lead to the following conclusion: the complexity inherent in life inevitably leads to the conclusion that it was not designed by an intelligence. Indeed, the conclusion that a random series of events, that survive due to a process of natural selection, is a simpler explanation than Intelligent Design.
Let's restate my argument somewhat: simplicity is a better argument for intelligence than complexity. Evolution by natural selection is a simpler explanation for the origin of species than complexity as a result of an Intelligent Designer. Thus, the theory of evolution may be a better argument for the hand of the divine in the processes of nature than an examination of the end results of evolution as evidence of complexity. The simplicity of Darwin's argument, backed up by meticulously collected evidence, is a testatment to Darwin's genius, and equally a testatement to the genius of whatever set this all in motion!
Sunday, April 20, 2008
More Cell Phone Blogging - Nagoya
It is another beautiful spring day in Aichi-ken. Here are a few more pictures from my FOMA SH903i.
Moda Gakuen Building:
Looking back at Nagoya stations - there are nice views at night from the towers above the station.
Here is the small station at Tatsumigaoka
Yakitori in Tatsumigaoka at a nice little family run place called Taraku.
Across the street is a small coffee shop/restaurant that must have been there forever. Definitely old school. I had an omelet rice for breakfast here today.
So that's all for this lazy Sunday in Aichi-ken.
Moda Gakuen Building:
Looking back at Nagoya stations - there are nice views at night from the towers above the station.
Here is the small station at Tatsumigaoka
Yakitori in Tatsumigaoka at a nice little family run place called Taraku.
Across the street is a small coffee shop/restaurant that must have been there forever. Definitely old school. I had an omelet rice for breakfast here today.
So that's all for this lazy Sunday in Aichi-ken.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Weekend Round-Up - April 19, 2008
I've been a busy with work (and a bit of play) the last few weeks, so here's some thoughts on recent events:
Check out this party at http://www.valys.com/ - Simon & Shaker from Spain had a fantastic set at this party that I helped produce at a club called Warehouse in Tokyo. A good time was had by all!
Well it seems Italy has shifted to the right, following Germany and France.
Italy's new PM isn't getting a lot of press coverage in the US or Japan, but when given a clear choice between anti-Americanism, appeasement, and socialist statism vs. pro-Western, defense of democracy and free markets, voters in "Old Europe" have yet again chosen the latter. This was no mere fluke. With 80% of voters making their opinion heard, this is a mandate. I
I don't know what George Bush's speech on global warming is meant to prove but at least the fact that the global warming alarmists are calling it too little too late, which means that W didn't give away the farm!
Who'd have guessed it but ABC (covered here in an LA Times piece) appears to have put together a watchable debate between Senators Obama and Clinton. With over 10 million viewers and some hard-hitting questions about electability on the table, both candidates actually had to squirm a bit. Obama is complaining that issues weren't discussed until 45 minutes in. When will he learn that presidential elections aren't really about issues. They are more about character. This is why McCain is now even in the polls. However, don't expect Senator Clinton to gain much from all this. To the Obama faithful it's not about character either - it's about the movement for "change". It's going to be an interesting summer.
Here Stephanopolous defends himself in more detail, and compellingly so. Seems he's turned into a real journalist. Don't expect him to be any easier on McCain either.
And as for issues - well, when they got to issues Obama muffed that too. Just look at the transcript on capital gains taxes and Gibson's challenge to Obama's answers there.
More from Lawrence Kudlow here .
I have another theory about presidential elections: The candidate that you'd most enjoy hanging out at with a bar is probably going to win. W had that over both Kerry and Gore. Clinton had that over Dole and W's dad, but GHW Bush had it over Dukakis. Reagan had it over everyone. I suspect McCain has it over both Obama and Clinton. But after Clinton's performance doing whiskey shots, hey I could almost vote for her (well not really, but almost!)
Citigroup's results were not as bad as some had feared, but Citi is not out of the woods yet. One concern is Pandit's statements about costs, and headlines mentioning 9000 job cuts and savings of up to 20%, particularly in Operations and Technology. O&T costs Citi something like $7B, and deep cuts there will only save about $1B a year - nothing like the $5B loss in just this quarter alone. I'd have to look at the latest numbers, but I don't think Citi is overweight on its technology spend compared to similar firms. That said, until Citi really develops a one-firm culture, with shared central services and purchasing, there will be room to manage costs better. But perhaps a bigger concern is the writedown of Old Lane, the hedge fund that Citi acquired bringing Pandit into the firm. The write down would suggest that Pandit isn't any better at managing risk than anyone else. Until I see evidence that Citi can overcome factional differences and truly develop a one-firm business model, right now I'd be in favor of splitting Citigroup into 3 parts: Retail Banking, Cards and Consumer Loans, and Corporate & Investment Banking.
Any news from Japan? Not really. Same old same old here. Zenkoji temple in Nagano is not going to be part of the Olympic torch relay. A court in Nagoya said that the Air Self Defense Forces mission in Iraq may be unconstitutional but refused to side with the plaintiffs (based on their lacking of standing to bring the case). In any case the government disagrees and isn't going to change anything. Some mobsters were held over an extortion attempt. Some businessmen didn't declare taxable earnings. Etc. Like I said. . .same old same old.
Zimbabwe? Still a mess and South Africa is losing credibility as a regional power almost daily. It's as if Mbeki wants Mugabe to hang on. Completely unacceptable.
China, Tibet, and the Olympics? CNN should have stuck up for what Cafferty said. . . but then CNN access to China is probably worth something too. As for the Chinese government - well why bother even commenting. If people haven't figured out by now, after nearly 60 years, that China is ruled by a one-party communist dictatorship, then I can't help them. Hypocrites all.
By the way, Moqtada al-Sadr lost in Basra. Not only that, he lost to Iraqi government forces. Even Iran was supporting the Iraqi government on this one. . .eventually the Western press will get it. More from Ed Morrissey.
And here's respect to Pope Benedict. His trip to the US this week is nothing short of spectacular.
Rush Limbaugh personally thanked President Bush for the greeting ceremony at the White House, which was amazing at multiple levels.
And here are a few award-winning blogs from my alma maters (Notre Dame and UC-Berkeley)
Irish Watchdog
California Patriot
It's good to see that the lefties haven't completely taken over!
Check out this party at http://www.valys.com/ - Simon & Shaker from Spain had a fantastic set at this party that I helped produce at a club called Warehouse in Tokyo. A good time was had by all!
Well it seems Italy has shifted to the right, following Germany and France.
Italy's new PM isn't getting a lot of press coverage in the US or Japan, but when given a clear choice between anti-Americanism, appeasement, and socialist statism vs. pro-Western, defense of democracy and free markets, voters in "Old Europe" have yet again chosen the latter. This was no mere fluke. With 80% of voters making their opinion heard, this is a mandate. I
I don't know what George Bush's speech on global warming is meant to prove but at least the fact that the global warming alarmists are calling it too little too late, which means that W didn't give away the farm!
Who'd have guessed it but ABC (covered here in an LA Times piece) appears to have put together a watchable debate between Senators Obama and Clinton. With over 10 million viewers and some hard-hitting questions about electability on the table, both candidates actually had to squirm a bit. Obama is complaining that issues weren't discussed until 45 minutes in. When will he learn that presidential elections aren't really about issues. They are more about character. This is why McCain is now even in the polls. However, don't expect Senator Clinton to gain much from all this. To the Obama faithful it's not about character either - it's about the movement for "change". It's going to be an interesting summer.
Here Stephanopolous defends himself in more detail, and compellingly so. Seems he's turned into a real journalist. Don't expect him to be any easier on McCain either.
And as for issues - well, when they got to issues Obama muffed that too. Just look at the transcript on capital gains taxes and Gibson's challenge to Obama's answers there.
More from Lawrence Kudlow here .
I have another theory about presidential elections: The candidate that you'd most enjoy hanging out at with a bar is probably going to win. W had that over both Kerry and Gore. Clinton had that over Dole and W's dad, but GHW Bush had it over Dukakis. Reagan had it over everyone. I suspect McCain has it over both Obama and Clinton. But after Clinton's performance doing whiskey shots, hey I could almost vote for her (well not really, but almost!)
Citigroup's results were not as bad as some had feared, but Citi is not out of the woods yet. One concern is Pandit's statements about costs, and headlines mentioning 9000 job cuts and savings of up to 20%, particularly in Operations and Technology. O&T costs Citi something like $7B, and deep cuts there will only save about $1B a year - nothing like the $5B loss in just this quarter alone. I'd have to look at the latest numbers, but I don't think Citi is overweight on its technology spend compared to similar firms. That said, until Citi really develops a one-firm culture, with shared central services and purchasing, there will be room to manage costs better. But perhaps a bigger concern is the writedown of Old Lane, the hedge fund that Citi acquired bringing Pandit into the firm. The write down would suggest that Pandit isn't any better at managing risk than anyone else. Until I see evidence that Citi can overcome factional differences and truly develop a one-firm business model, right now I'd be in favor of splitting Citigroup into 3 parts: Retail Banking, Cards and Consumer Loans, and Corporate & Investment Banking.
Any news from Japan? Not really. Same old same old here. Zenkoji temple in Nagano is not going to be part of the Olympic torch relay. A court in Nagoya said that the Air Self Defense Forces mission in Iraq may be unconstitutional but refused to side with the plaintiffs (based on their lacking of standing to bring the case). In any case the government disagrees and isn't going to change anything. Some mobsters were held over an extortion attempt. Some businessmen didn't declare taxable earnings. Etc. Like I said. . .same old same old.
Zimbabwe? Still a mess and South Africa is losing credibility as a regional power almost daily. It's as if Mbeki wants Mugabe to hang on. Completely unacceptable.
China, Tibet, and the Olympics? CNN should have stuck up for what Cafferty said. . . but then CNN access to China is probably worth something too. As for the Chinese government - well why bother even commenting. If people haven't figured out by now, after nearly 60 years, that China is ruled by a one-party communist dictatorship, then I can't help them. Hypocrites all.
By the way, Moqtada al-Sadr lost in Basra. Not only that, he lost to Iraqi government forces. Even Iran was supporting the Iraqi government on this one. . .eventually the Western press will get it. More from Ed Morrissey.
And here's respect to Pope Benedict. His trip to the US this week is nothing short of spectacular.
Rush Limbaugh personally thanked President Bush for the greeting ceremony at the White House, which was amazing at multiple levels.
And here are a few award-winning blogs from my alma maters (Notre Dame and UC-Berkeley)
Irish Watchdog
California Patriot
It's good to see that the lefties haven't completely taken over!
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Conspiracy! and liberal lies
So here is an amusing read suggesting that a financial conspiracy is driving world events so that everything breaks down to be rescued by a world government lead by an "intellectual elite and world bankers." Well is that any worse than what we have now? Let's invite Soros, Buffet and Hillary (aka the smartest woman in the world) to run it!
Actually, that's not what's interesting to me about this article. Rather, I'm interested in the points the author uses to demonstrate the crisis. Most all of them would get nods of agreement from my liberal friends. Too bad they are (mostly) all wrong. Let's take a look.
Point 1: The implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement by the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations has led to the elimination of millions of U.S. manufacturing jobs as well as the destruction of U.S. family farming in favor of global agribusiness.
What? I thought jobs have been added to the US economy in both the Clinton and Bush administrations. Additionally, there is real economic growth, real wage growth, not just in the US but also in Mexico and Canada. Some relevant data here and here
Point 2: Similar free trade agreements, including those under the auspices of the World Trade Organization, have led to export of millions of additional manufacturing jobs to China and elsewhere.
Well OK, let's start with what's so great about manufacturing jobs anyway? Is it all those happy workers toiling away until retirement or death, whichever comes first? Hmm - perhaps all those poor workers at Google and Microsoft would rather pour molten steel or make shows. But guess what, manufacturing have declined in Japan where there is a trade surplus and protectionist policies. Why? Because productivity gains alone will result in fewer jobs. But each job will be better paying. The efficiency gained can be re-invested in new opportunity creating more jobs. The data proves as much!
Read this congressional testimony for the benefits of trade with China.
Point 3: Average family income in the U.S. has steadily eroded while the share of the nation’s wealth held by the richest income brackets has soared. Some Wall Street hedge fund managers are making $1 billion a year while the number of homeless, including war veterans, pushes a million.
Read this congressional testimony for the benefits of trade with China.
Point 3: Average family income in the U.S. has steadily eroded while the share of the nation’s wealth held by the richest income brackets has soared. Some Wall Street hedge fund managers are making $1 billion a year while the number of homeless, including war veterans, pushes a million.
Alright, we've been through this before. Real incomes per person have increased. It is the average family size that has decreased. The reason for that is increased wealth and opportunity. Young working people do not need to live at home. They have their own apartments. Also, analysis of income brackets generally fails to note that people move in and out of the various brackets during their lives. As for billionaire hedge fund managers, well why not!? Homeless war veterans? where's that data? We've been through the housing data before in this blog.
Point 4: The housing bubble has led to a huge inflation of real estate prices in the U.S. Millions of homes are falling into the hands of the bankers through foreclosure. The cost of land and rentals has further decimated family agriculture as well as small business. Rising property taxes based on inflated land assessments have forced millions of lower-and middle-income people and elderly out of their homes.
Where even to begin: Falling home prices mean housing is, oh what's the word, "affordable"! The issues driving the bubble were bad laws encouraging (indeed forcing) subprime lending noted here, speculators, and zoning laws restricting free markets in housing prices note by Cato here.
Point 5: The fact that bankers now control national monetary systems in their entirety, under laws where money is introduced only through lending at interest, has resulted in a massive debt pyramid that is teetering on collapse. This "monetarist" system was pioneered by Rockefeller-family funded economists at the University of Chicago. The rub is that when the pyramid comes down and everyone goes bankrupt the banks which have been creating money "out of thin air" will then be able to seize valuable assets for pennies on the dollar, as J.P. Morgan Chase is preparing to do with the businesses owned by Carlyle Capital. Meaningful regulation of the financial industry has been abandoned by government, and any politician that stands in the way, such as Eliot Spitzer, is destroyed.
Oh and Eliot Spitzer is now the good guy? The monetarist system is in place because it works. Read anything by Milton Friedman.
Point 6: The total tax burden on Americans from federal, state, and local governments now exceeds forty percent of income and is rising. Today, with a recession starting, the Democratic-controlled Congress, while supporting the minuscule "stimulus" rebate, is hypocritically raising taxes further, even for middle-income earners. Back taxes, along with student loans, can no longer be eliminated by bankruptcy protection.
Well guess what? I agree. Taxes are too high. The answer is to reduce taxes!!! The current stimulus plan is a joke.
Point 7: Gasoline prices are soaring even as companies like Exxon-Mobil are recording record profits. Other commodity prices are going up steadily, including food prices, with some countries starting to experience near-famine conditions. 40 million people in America are officially classified as "food insecure."
Hmm - OK I'll bite. Issues affecting food prices: Subsidies for farmers. Distorted markets through trade protection. BioFuels (that ironically generate more CO2 than fossil fuels - except sugar-cane that is). Record food stamps to help the "food insecure". . .and by the way, gas prices in real terms that aren't really any worse than the Carter years.
Point 8: Corporate control of water and mineral resources has removed much of what is available from the public commons, and the deregulation of energy production has led to huge increases in the costs of electricity in many areas.
OK. . .I don't have all the data on this one. . .but how is Corporate control worse than State control?
Point 9: The destruction of family farming in the U.S. by NAFTA (along with family farming in Mexico and Canada) has been mirrored by policies toward other nations on the part of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Around the world, due to pressure from the "Washington consensus," local food self-sufficiency has been replaced by raising of crops primarily for export. Migration off the land has fed the population of huge slums around the cities of underdeveloped countries.
Umm so family farming is the most efficient form of farming? So let's see - farming in the US is a worse system, than say, India? Also, why are people moving off the land? Did big agri-business force India farmers to the slums of Mumbai? Or was it, that even the slums offer better opportunity than those quaint little villages?
Point 10: Since the 1980s the U.S. has been fighting wars throughout the world either directly or by proxy. The former Yugoslavia was dismembered by NATO. Under cover of 9/11 and by utilizing off-the-shelf plans, the U.S. is now engaged in the military conquest and permanent military occupation of the Middle East. A worldwide encirclement of Russia and China by U.S. and NATO forces is underway, and a new push to militarize space has begun. The Western powers are clearly preparing for at least the possibility of another world war.
So the alternative is, what, to not be prepared? Umm OK.
Point 10: Since the 1980s the U.S. has been fighting wars throughout the world either directly or by proxy. The former Yugoslavia was dismembered by NATO. Under cover of 9/11 and by utilizing off-the-shelf plans, the U.S. is now engaged in the military conquest and permanent military occupation of the Middle East. A worldwide encirclement of Russia and China by U.S. and NATO forces is underway, and a new push to militarize space has begun. The Western powers are clearly preparing for at least the possibility of another world war.
So the alternative is, what, to not be prepared? Umm OK.
Point 11: The expansion of the U.S. military empire abroad is mirrored by the creation of a totalitarian system of surveillance at home, whereby the activities of private citizens are spied upon and tracked by technology and systems which have been put into place under the heading of the "War on Terror." Human microchip implants for tracking purposes are starting to be used. The military-industrial complex has become the nation’s largest and most successful industry with tens of thousands of planners engaged in devising new and better ways, both overt and covert, to destroy both foreign and domestic "enemies."
So 9/11 didn't actually happen and there Islamo-facism is all a myth. . .well uh maybe. . .
Point 12: Meanwhile, the U.S. has the largest prison population of any country on earth. Plus everyday life for millions of people is a crushing burden of government, insurance, and financial fees, charges, and paperwork. And the simplest business transactions are burdened by rake-offs for legions of accountants, lawyers, bureaucrats, brokers, speculators, and middlemen.
Guess what has also happened - lower crime! Putting criminals in jail means less crime! Even the NYT noticed that!
Point 13: Finally, the deteriorating conditions of everyday life have given rise to an extraordinary level of stress-related disease, as well as epidemic alcohol and drug addiction. Governments themselves around the world engage in drug trafficking. Instead of working to lower stress levels, public policy is skewed in favor of an enormous prescription drug industry that grows rich off the declining level of health through treatment of symptoms rather than causes. Many of these heavily-advertised medications themselves have devastating side-effects.
Could it be that drug companies are actually trying to find solutions to health problems that would otherwise be devastating? As for drug trafficking governments - let's see - North Korea, Venezuela perhaps?
Point 13: Finally, the deteriorating conditions of everyday life have given rise to an extraordinary level of stress-related disease, as well as epidemic alcohol and drug addiction. Governments themselves around the world engage in drug trafficking. Instead of working to lower stress levels, public policy is skewed in favor of an enormous prescription drug industry that grows rich off the declining level of health through treatment of symptoms rather than causes. Many of these heavily-advertised medications themselves have devastating side-effects.
Could it be that drug companies are actually trying to find solutions to health problems that would otherwise be devastating? As for drug trafficking governments - let's see - North Korea, Venezuela perhaps?
Interestingly, the points listed are part of the liberal echo chamber about the problems with America: Yea Cuban-style socialist health care and Chavez standing up to the evil Yanquis! Boo corporations and George Bush!
So maybe there is a conspiracy theory. But it is actually the liberals who want to control you by lying about the facts, and then putting their socialist solutions in place to fix problems that don't exist. Don't believe me? I give you Man-made Global Warming (spelled in caps because it's a religion!)
Free markets, capitalism, individual rights, rule of law: It works - try it!
Saturday, April 5, 2008
Japanese politicians dither and gas prices fall!
On April 1, 2008, more than 30 years after a "temporary" gas tax increase was imposed, the tax fell from about 50 yen per liter to about 25 yen per liter. This was not planned. It happened because the DPJ who control the upper house of parliament were able to stall legislation to extend the tax. In about a month this will all be sorted out, as the lower house will be able to override the upper house. But in the meantime, average prices have dropped from about 150 yen per liter to about 125 yen per liter. Now that's still about $5/gallon but finally the Japanese consumer has something to cheer!
Of course, all 47 prefectural governors deplore this sudden drop. Why? Because the prefectures get a big chunk of pork-barrel funding from this tax. It's not for nothing that several members of government are called the "Road Tribe"!
Of course there are doom and gloom scenarios of several 100 billion yen in lost revenue. What nobody seems to have factored in is that consumers may actually buy more gas this month, mitigating the revenue shortfall at least a bit.
And then how many more roads does Japan really need?
But don't forget: It's not about the roads. It's about who controls the flow of money!
Lehman Brothers and Marubeni - A $350M scam!
Reuters has this story about Lehman Brothers filing a lawsuit in Tokyo to recover $350M from Marubeni who are also claiming that they were victimized in the same scam. Gaijinpot has more, including an interesting observation that this story does not figure prominently in the Japanese press.
2) Asclepius was a 100% subsidiary of LTT Bio-Pharma, which is a TSE listed company (ticker 4566). Not sure if the fund and Asclepius are one and the same. Asclepius was originally independent and was purchased by LTT Bio-Pharma
3) Documents provided by two former contract employees of Marubeni indicate
Marubeni is the gaurantor, i.e. Marubeni "secured" the loan. Meetings with Lehmans took place in Marubeni's offices.
4) The loans were meant to finance Marubeni's equipment leases and supply contracts with hospitals. Lehman gave the partnership money in advance.
5) Lehman requested a meeting and met the Marubeni general manager involved.
So here's what seems to have happened:
1) Lehman loaned $355M to a fund headed by Asclepius Ltd.2) Asclepius was a 100% subsidiary of LTT Bio-Pharma, which is a TSE listed company (ticker 4566). Not sure if the fund and Asclepius are one and the same. Asclepius was originally independent and was purchased by LTT Bio-Pharma
3) Documents provided by two former contract employees of Marubeni indicate
Marubeni is the gaurantor, i.e. Marubeni "secured" the loan. Meetings with Lehmans took place in Marubeni's offices.
4) The loans were meant to finance Marubeni's equipment leases and supply contracts with hospitals. Lehman gave the partnership money in advance.
5) Lehman requested a meeting and met the Marubeni general manager involved.
6) The issue came up on Feb 29, when Lehman tried to collect a payment from Marubeni under the deal. When they met the general manager to complain, Lehmans learned that the first person they met was an impostor.
7) Asclepius announced on March 19th that its bankruptcy proceedings were approved by Tokyo District Court, and that its president was dismissed on March 7th. . .although I also read that the president of Asclepius submitted his resignation at the end of January.
Now here's what I don't understand:
1) LTT Bio-Pharma total revenue was about $12M in 2007. That's revenue. What are they doing with a subsidiary that needs $355M for leases?
2) LTT Bio-Pharma stock has been declining steadily for 4 years - clearly something was amiss that was broader than the current market uncertainty.
3) What documents and meetings are enough to secure a $355M loan without broader credit checks and meetings with all the involved parties? Clearly more than a meeting with some junior employees and their boss? Marubeni is not an unknown company - clearly its senior people, who are authorized to affix a seal to a loan security document, are known to bankers?
4) Why is LTT Bio-Pharma, that does research and drug systems delivery, suddently going into medical leases?
5) Why would the set up a fund as a subsidiary, and not as a fund (with a trustee, etc.)? why would Lehman not ask that same question?
This whole thing smells. I suspect what happened is that LTT Bio-Pharma had some serious problems and its management was under pressure. Some con artists (possibly yakuza) came to them with a plan to sort it all out - that involved setting up Asclepius and coordinating with private hospitals that do indeed use Marubeni, perhaps as a way of gaining knowledge how such contracts work. However, the actual documents were fake and there never was a Marubeni lease contract. The $350M is probably gone and offshore, using the same evidence of legitimacy to bypass any Anti-Money-Laundering flags or other banking controls. I suspect also that the Lehman employees involved were also under some pressure to make some numbers, and this deal looked like a pretty good chance to book some revenue quickly.
Now here's what I don't understand:
1) LTT Bio-Pharma total revenue was about $12M in 2007. That's revenue. What are they doing with a subsidiary that needs $355M for leases?
2) LTT Bio-Pharma stock has been declining steadily for 4 years - clearly something was amiss that was broader than the current market uncertainty.
3) What documents and meetings are enough to secure a $355M loan without broader credit checks and meetings with all the involved parties? Clearly more than a meeting with some junior employees and their boss? Marubeni is not an unknown company - clearly its senior people, who are authorized to affix a seal to a loan security document, are known to bankers?
4) Why is LTT Bio-Pharma, that does research and drug systems delivery, suddently going into medical leases?
5) Why would the set up a fund as a subsidiary, and not as a fund (with a trustee, etc.)? why would Lehman not ask that same question?
This whole thing smells. I suspect what happened is that LTT Bio-Pharma had some serious problems and its management was under pressure. Some con artists (possibly yakuza) came to them with a plan to sort it all out - that involved setting up Asclepius and coordinating with private hospitals that do indeed use Marubeni, perhaps as a way of gaining knowledge how such contracts work. However, the actual documents were fake and there never was a Marubeni lease contract. The $350M is probably gone and offshore, using the same evidence of legitimacy to bypass any Anti-Money-Laundering flags or other banking controls. I suspect also that the Lehman employees involved were also under some pressure to make some numbers, and this deal looked like a pretty good chance to book some revenue quickly.
So why isn't this bigger news? It is after all, more than a QUARTER BILLION DOLLARS!!!
My more cynical Japanese friends suggest the following:
a) since the victim was a foreign company (Lehman Brothers) nobody really cares, or
b) actually this happens a lot, it is just the lawsuit that made it public this time. Normally, it would have been sorted out in smoke-filled back rooms between the parties involved.
The scam appears to have been well planned. According to some reports, other investment banks participated in similar deals in the past and got paid back - allowing Ascelpius to establish a track record.
Marubeni is denying any responsibility. The law does not seem to be on Marubeni's side. Employment law is quite clear that Marubeni is responsible for the commercial actions of its employees, and that includes contract staff. Nevertheless, if the courts consider that Lehmans failed to due sufficient due diligence, then any damage award could be reduced.
That said, my same cynical friend suggests that all the things that are a red-flag to my mind are actually completely normal in Japan, i.e. financing for leases being run through listed, but low revenue companies with falling stock prices.
None of this is good for Marubeni who depends on international finance and is now a suspect counterparty. It is not good for Lehmans for having been duped in the first place. It is not good for Japan, Inc. either as it serves to remind that big chunks of the economy here still exist at the fringe of a murky underworld.
Another friend pointed out that at the same time the fraudulent meetings were taking place, a TV drama in Japan about scam victims who are helped to scam the scammers had a scenario about fake meetings that are eerily similar to what the reports of seems to have gone on here. Life imitates art!
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