Minneapolis St. Paul Airport Satisfaction Up from 20 to 2.

This article expresses surprise that MSP airport jumped so high in a JD Power survey.


I was only surprised that it was so low last year! Here's why. I've been traveling through MSP between Asia and hometown Wisconsin for the better part of 20 years. MSP has many advantages:


1) It can handle winter weather. It has enough plows, de-icers, and the like and I've never once been delayed (unlike ORD, Denver)
2) It is right-sized for the traffic. I've never been in a holding pattern coming into MSP (unlike JFK, DTW, ORD, SFO, LAX)
3) It is among the best US immigration and customs entry point. Speedy, efficient, even for int'l visitors. It took me 30 minutes from the door opening on the flight from Tokyo to connecting gate. A similar experience in DTW on a relatively slow day took 90 minutes. Don't even get me started about JFK or LAX!
4) The terminal connections are easy to navigate, shops are friendly, food is even OK. You can even get a nice shoe-shine from some of the best shoe-shiners in the business!
5) Drive up and parking are relatively easy.
6) It is full of friendly Minnesotans!
7) You can get a drink on Christmas day (unlike Detroit)


Perhaps check-in and TSE security could perhaps be a bit better,  but you can probably say that about any airport these days.


So maybe you are all to hard on yourselves! I don't think I've been just lucky each trip (I'm not that lucky!). More likely, the criteria JD Power uses in their survey are not the true indicators of quality. Additionally there is probably too much variance in the test sample year on year.


But if you want to aim higher don't let me stop you! Singapore Changi Airport is actually far superior with Hong Kong Chep Lap Kok airport not far behind.

All You Need to Know about Climate Change

Nice summary linked above. Putting aside "Climategate," which basically requires a do-over of the underlying data, computer analysis, and theoretical underpinnings of climate science before policy recommendations affecting the planet can be re-tabled, here are the key points:

Climate Changes. Short term trends don't trump the long term trends. We need to be prepared.

We are in a 400 year warming trend, with the most recent dip being the 1860's mini-ice age. Since the industrial revolution started about the same time, this is part of the confusion why the misinformed think human activity is causing warming.

Human activity accounts for less than 0.3% of all green house gases. About 1/3 of that is CO2, with the rest being gases like methane, and various nitrous oxides. Eliminating all of it would have no impact on the other 99.7%, which is naturally occurring.

The best available data suggests that atmosphere is at a lower level of CO2 today than historical norms.

Data also suggest that temperatures were 2C higher in the Medieval Warm Period, peaking in about the year 1200. This warming period was a golden age for many cultures - end of the European Dark Ages, Peak of Angkor Wat, Pre-Columbian Americas, Mongols (though you might not think that if you were Chinese to the south!) and on and on - I'd guess due to better crop yields around the world.

Of course, we shouldn't pump more pollutants into the atmosphere. Pollutants are inefficient waste. Clean coal is better than unclean coal. Nuclear Power is better than that, so long as you can deal with nuclear waste. Solar, Tidal, Geothermal, Hydro-electric, micro-power generation all all becoming better and lower cost with technology each day. Efficiency is also good for business.

Any of the above does not require any global treaties, Co2 carbon credits, cap and trade, UN committees, IPCC, nor even regulation on whether to use mercury-laden light bulbs vs. incandescent ones. Free market profit incentives, including your own utility bill, have done more to drive down emissions than any committee. Even better gas mileage cars (with all those electronics that make it possible that everyone is so worried about now) are driven mainly by consumers looking to economize - not government mandated fleet mileage requirements.

Human-caused global arming hysteria and fear mongering is completely unnecessary. Any attempt to impose change that take away individual freedoms due to such hysteria is morally reprehensible. Worse than carrying out the death penalty on someone who has an iron-clad DNA-based alibi.

2-degrees of Separation from Wasilla

I met a woman from Wasilla in, of all places, a coin laundry at the hotel I'm staying in. She knows Sarah Palin personally. Her comment? Sarah is the genuine article. She is highly respected as former mayor and for her work as governor by a significant majority in Alaska. No surprise really, but interesting to hear it from someone with first hand knowledge.

Krauthammer Right Again

I can't really say it any better and won't even try!

There is no substitute for executive experience. Clinton and Reagan both had it.

I know from my own career that academic smarts aren't enough but that real experience with real people is a great teacher. You make a lot of mistakes along the way but that's life!

And if you can't do something yourself, find the people who can. It is guaranteed there is always someone better at something than you are.

Why are Health Care Costs more in Minnesota than in Hong Kong?

I am personally receiving some significant medical treatment and anecdotally I'm seeing costs in the USA as much as 20% to 3 times higher than for the very same thing in Hong Kong. To be fair, I am at one of the best medical centers in the USA and I came precisely to get the very best treatment. I don't begrudge the doctors a premium for that. But I also was in Hong Kong's very best hospitals being attended to by some of the leading doctors there as well, with the first doctor diagnosing my condition within 15 minutes, even though there are less than 5 such cases in HK per year and it is not his specialty.

But here are some comparisons from actual invoices:

Item USA Hong Kong

Lipid Blood Test $102 $64

Chest CT Scan w read $486 $450

Heart ECG $140 $80

Generalist Visit $200 $100

Specialist Consult $400-600 $200

Specialist report MRI   $794 $400

A full 7 day inpatient stay at one of HK's leading hospitals cost me about $8200. A similar experience in US, on an outpatient basis will cost about $2000 more plus my hotel/lodging costs. I'm also told that in Hong Kong costs can be even less at other clinics and hospitals.

There does seem to be more duplication and additional testing in the US. I had one consultation that will cost me about $400 that was perhaps not necessary as it didn't tell me anything that the other doctors didn't already have in hand.

Another difference is that when I ask the doctors in USA about the costs of the tests, they don't typically know. In Hong Kong all the doctors and nurses know the costs and will tell you up front.

Assuming about 15% of the US economy is health care ($2 Trillion), a productivity gain of just 10% would save something like $200 Billion a year. That would pay for all of ObamaCare with money left over and no tax increases for anyone. It seems to me that malpractice reform, incentives to lower costs of drugs, and perhaps even work to improve administrative efficiency at clinics and hospitals could achieve this. Market forces require the private sector to drive efficiency (think Lasik). Why not health care?

Here's the view from my room at the hospital in Hong Kong. Not bad!

The Road to Serfdom

Hayek's writings are getting attention again - although you'd think the following would be obvious:

"We have a basic choice to make: either each of us chooses for ourselves (classical liberalism) or government chooses for us (or to put it otherwise, we all choose for each other)."

If the latter, the historical experience observed by Hayek in the 1930s is:

"Government allocation of economic resources led in the short run to budget deficits, in the medium run to inflation and monetizing the debt, and in the long run dictatorship that imposed a standard of values on society (and totalitarian impulses designed to brainwash people into to subordinating their own preferences to the preferences of the collective). A corollary is that when government allocates resources, rent-seeking and influence peddling become endemic to the system of trying to get your needs met rather than someone else’s."

We are seeing the problem now. The solution must be a trend to smaller government that is less likely to take away your choice.

Happy Chinese New Year!

Gung Hei Fat Choy as they say in Hong Kong! Time to pass out red packets for good luck, have some oranges, and look forward to the year of the Tiger!

Also a good time for some thoughts on various topics for the new year:

Whatever you say about Obama, he's cool. The concert the other night at the White House just oozed it. I like that.

Obama should meet with Dalai Lama and continue to support Taiwan's legitimate defense. US should be vocal about the reasons why. Perhaps tie it too lack of trust in China's support for a non-nuclear Iran. PRC will not respect US weakness. Only strength.

It's the policy stupid! American's are smarter than some people think. The problem with lefty policies isn't that they aren't explained well. The problem is that they stink. Intelligent, thinking Americans - like the majority of the Tea Party movement are wise to it.

Good luck to Bill Clinton. Good thing US health care and health care innovation is the best in the world.

Did you catch the news about Ms. Kissel the murderess in HK? She gets a re-trial but no sympathy. She had it all but murdered her banker husband anyway. She admitted to it as well. She is not a victim. She is a killer.

Go Go Goldman Sachs - great company in an important industry. Make no mistake: Investment Banks are part of the infrastructure that allocates capital efficiently. This is a pre-requisite for jobs and innovation. If Goldman's investors or customers have a problem with that, they can take their money elsewhere. Regulators need to ensure fairness without killing the engines prosperity.

When will unions start caring about the customers they serve? I've had to deal with unions in the New York recently and what a bunch of selfish cry babies. The best solution is simply to go where there are no unions. I can get stuff done at a fair price and timely fashion. This is good for everyone.

You know what? I support Michelle Obama's latest project American's are too fat. It's not healthy and it is bad for society as a whole. I wouldn't have branded it about child obesity - childhood nutrition is a better label I think - but the concept is good.

America needs to stop thinking we're so superior. I know a generation of Indian and Chinese students who will kick your ass academically and with hard work. Better still let them all immigrate to the US and become steeped in American values - a lot of them would help us kick global ass (in a good way too).

No Joe Biden you did not win Iraq. First of all, Iraqi's won it. Second it was Bush administration policy. The most you can say is that Obama kept Sec Def Gates.

An increase in jobless claims is not a reduction, even if the rate of increase of claims was lower.

Climate change is not the same as weather. Even if we don't know for certain if temperatures are going up or down or the degree of change caused by human activity, what we know for certain is that climate will change. Warming is probably better than cooling, since it leads to higher crop yields, more biomass, and has been the source of improvements in the human condition every time. But how to deal with change? One tried and true method is free-market capitalism. Works every time and doesn't require involuntary massive wealth changes. As for island nations such as the Maldives that might be under water? Well where were humans the last time the Maldives were underwater? Not there anyway. Or if you want to build where there is land below sea-level, hire some Dutch guys. They have 500 years experience.

Chavez, Mugabe, Stumpy in Iran, and all the apologists for same - I have no time for you. Your incompetence speaks for itself.

As for Greece. What were you thinking? Nobody else in the Euro zone owes you anything. Issue some bonds, cut spending, and raise the retirement age.

Does anyone know what 5th amendment (i.e. Miranda) rights exist prior to entering the USA, i.e. before you get past the immigration officer? Is it different for US citizens vs. visitors? I suspect there aren't any such rights until after you get through to baggage claim, although while on a US flag carrier (e.g. the flight) you might have such rights.

Sarah Palin: nice notes. At least you don't need a teleprompter to talk! No different than David Letterman's little blue note cards.

And what evidence that Obama and team are so "smart"? Articulate doesn't equal smart. Inability to deliver is evidence of not being very smart, well at least not very clever.

There you have it! Happy year of the Tiger everyone

So What Are My Qualifications To Comment Anyway?

I occasionally am asked what are my qualifications to pontificate on these various topics anyway? Well OK, here they are:

1) I have a PhD from UC Berkeley in Electrical Engineering, 1991

2) I have over a dozen peer reviewed articles in topics that include computer simulation, related physics, and comparison of simulation and experimental data (this has some relevance to climate change modeling for example). I have also authored several book chapters on working in a Japanese company, nanotechnology public policy and other topics.

3) I have worked for over 15 years in information technology for the financial sector. This provides insight for both fields and how they intersect.

4) I have lived in Japan for 16 years and now Hong Kong for nearly 2 and have travelled extensively throughout the region, including China and India.

5) I have run organizations with over 500 employees and budgets exceeding $200M

6) I have also worked in the pharmaceutical industry, consulting on IT as well as set up a a joint venture venture-capital funded research laboratory for a major global firm. I have some related experience as a free lance consultant and entrepreneur.

7) I have helped produce underground music parties in the depths of Shibuya and Roppongi, Japan. I have consulted for fashion industry in Japan as well (!)

7) I pay a s***load of taxes.

I am not: a lawyer, a practicing academic, nor am I particular good as a entrepreneur. There is a lot I don't know, but at least I am willing to admit that!

A Few Thoughts on Toyota

As a 17 year resident of Japan, I can see clearly the problem. Japanese culture is not good at transparency. It is the land of nuance and the unsaid. But that's no excuse. Japanese multinationals should know better when operating outside their backward. I've been telling this to Japanese leaders for a good part of that 17 years and I'm not the only one. The Japanese people are beginning to demand the same transparency as well.

Indeed in the financial sector in Japan regulators require immediate disclosure of issues. I've been there and the FSA doesn't tolerate even 24 hours delay. So why would Japanese car maker expect any differently in the USA.

In any case here's what should have happened:

1) immediate disclosure and recalls as soon as issue identified.

2) disclosure to appropriate regulators as soon as possible.

3) autonomy to the US corporate leadership to get the word out quickly. If you don't have the right person in the job or can't trust him (or her) - then get someone else?

But let's also keep things in perspective. Other car companies have also had these problems. Remember exploding gas tanks on the Pinto and accelerator problems on Audi's? There was a joke about not wanting to be between the two!

Also what if GM had a similar problem. Doesn't US ownership of GM present a conflict of interest with US regulators? Would the Dept. of Transportation response be as robust? Just asking!

Why Smaller Government is the Solution

The linked posts makes the good point that voters on both sides of the political spectrum are often ignorant of the issues, or more likely refuse to entertain data that doesn't support their preconceived notions. The solution is simple - don't allow bad decisions to cause harm - through smaller government with less power.

Let's expand on that though by working backwards:

Corruption leads to bad things - like shoddy construction and support services that result in a death toll in an earthquake that is much worse than it should have been - like Haiti.

Power Corrupts. The mad pursuit of power also leads to oppression, lies, and all kinds of things that are by definition evil. People suffer, live in poverty and die.

Big Governments are by definition more powerful than smaller ones. Quite simply, that's because a big government covers more and thus has a bigger impact on your life.

Big governments might be well intended: Here's a problem! Let's fix it by getting a bunch of people together to work on it! Good luck for us, we have a government of people all ready to help!

So what started off innocent leads to corruption and bad things.

So what's the alternative?

Let's keep it small - government should do only what is proven cannot be done by any other means.

Small government can't corrupt as easily.

Let's be careful something else doesn't get too big. Small government can set laws to ensure other things don't get too big - e.g. anti-trust in companies

Less power = less corruption = less evil. Don't be Evil means not being too big.

Now how are you going to vote next election? For Evil or not Evil? Here's a guide:

Not Evil requires a government that:

a) takes less taxes from everyone (including you)

b) passes less laws affecting you

c) can't give you something for nothing (because otherwise it took it from someone else)

d) doesn't tell you what to do so long as you're not hurting someone else.

By the way this isn't about political party. It is about whether you are contributing to evil or not. So are you going to vote for big government, higher taxes, nationalization of large sectors of the economy (e.g. ObamaCare) or not?

Actually ditto for companies - more companies competing with each other is better. Wal-Mart might be a counter example (bigger purchasing power to drive lower prices for more people) but Wal-Mart needs competition too. So do big pharma and large banks.

Less is More!

Air Travel - Can We All Just Chill Out?

I like flying. I really do. I like the sense of going somewhere. I marvel that just over a hundred years ago it wasn't possible at all. Less than 50 years ago it was out of reach of most. Now it is routine.

But it is amusing to watch people in airports. First of all, everyone can you please relax a bit? You will most likely get where you want to go with a minimum of fuss. The simple rules.

Yes the TSA and security check points are a hassle. I saw a guy who seemed a normal businessman try to take a bottle of water onto the plane. He complained to the screener who told him he couldn't. First of all, the screener isn't going to change his mind, and second - where have you been? If you want to complain find some terrorist and have a go at him. We can all help each other get through the line faster:

a) don't wear metal - you'll get through the metal detector faster (obvious right?)

b) put your liquids in the little plastic bags just like they tell you to do (obvious right?)

c) have your laptop computer out or don't bring one (obvious right?)

d) wear coat and shoes that are easy to take on and off (obvious right?)

e) have your documents, ID and boarding pass ready (obvious right?)

It's really not that hard - but you'd be surprised how many people can't get this right!

Airport staff have seen it all before. Remember they are in airports almost every day and have probably seen every possible passenger. You are not special.

The weather is not anyone's fault. Well if you believe in man-made global climate change, then actually maybe it is your fault for traveling and spreading that carbon footprint around in the first place, so double-no-complaining for you!

Do you really think you deserve an upgrade to business class? Business class fares pay for the rest of us in coach to fly cheaper. if you want business class well pony up and pay. These days the seat assignment is so good that there aren't many spare seats anyway. If you do get in-voluntarily upgraded enjoy it, but don't expect it!

If you can't read your seat assignment and line up when it is called, well I really feel sorry for you. But if you can, then why not just line up when asked? there will be room in the overhead bin for your carry-on and it'll go smoother for everyone if we all just board in order by row number. How hard is that? You can sit down until called.

And why the rush to get up at the gate before the seat belt sign goes off? The door doesn't open any sooner.

Parents - I feel for you, but now is the time to control your kids. For all those good parents out. Thank you! We appreciate it!

Couples who are fighting - get it together at least for the flight. Please for the rest of us?

And here are a few for the airlines:

If there is an entertainment system, could you please turn it on sooner? Why the huge wait between announcements and starting the system?

Do mobile phones really interfere with the airplane's sensitive electronics? If they did then planes would be falling out of the sky because I'm sure people forget all the time. No system that relies on all of us silly passengers doing the right thing all the time will ever work - but you knew that. Of course I'm thankful that nobody is yapping all the time so perhaps we can work out a compromise here.

If things do mess up, just give us some options. I know you can (and generally you do).

And here's a shout-out to everyone at Minneapolis/St.Paul Int'l Airport: Great Job! The other day I landed from Tokyo and from door opening to being at my connecting gate to a flight to Madison, Wisconsin took only 30 minutes! Immigration, Customs, Delta/Northwest agents - everyone was great. I've been flying to/from MSP for over 20 years and it's just about as efficient and friendly every time in all kinds of weather. The agents at gate F2 the day I was there were also very professional and good with passengers.

Happy flying!

More Unoriginal Health Care Thoughts

It strikes me that the health care debate is focused on entirely the wrong thing. Let's start with the goal: The best possible health care for everyone at an affordable price . What would achieve that? Here's some ideas in no particular order:

Drug innovation: It is only fair that inventors get compensated for their work to bring new ideas. In today's world, inventors aren't just individuals toiling away in solitude. Invention is often the collaboration of hundreds working together. In many cases this is a research lab: it might be a company, a university, a government institution or a combination of all of that. In all cases the scientists, engineers, and support need to get paid. Usually (mostly?) this is from the results of the innovation being sold to those who benefit. No difference for drugs. The innovation is protected through patents.

But here's the problem. In the current patent scheme in the US, a new chemical idea (a compound) must be protected from the time the inventor determines it might produce a drug, not when it actually is one. Once the patent is issued, it is valid for 17 years and the clock starts ticking. The rub is that it may take 10 or more years for the drug to pass the appropriate testing, clinical trials, and safety checks before it can be released to market. The inventory then has only a few years to make all the money back. What does this mean? higher costs in the short run.

So what if the patent protection were fixed (say 12 years from FDA approval?). I can see these benefits:

1) predictable time frame to recoup the investment in developing and testing the drug.

2) no incentive to rush clinical trials or any other part of the research needed for safety.

3) longer period to amortize the cost, which could result in lower cost even before the drug becomes generic.

Some simple rules could be put in place to prevent the discoverers from sitting on a compound too long, but the natural incentive of anyone I've ever worked with in pharma industry is to save lives. If the idea works, the researches want it out there.

Legal Reforms. Much has been said about the high cost of malpractice insurance and disincentives that it creates for doctors, especially in oby/gyn. How about limitations on liability that are clear and well understood by all? When you get on an airplane the contract for loss of life or limb is clear. Why not when you go to a doctor? How about this: if malpractice does happen the limitation is:

1) what you paid, plus court costs, plus

2) the cost of all future treatment resulting from the malpractice

3) if you can't work, reimbursement of you current wage for the rest of your natural working life (until the current Social Security standard retirement age).

4) plus punitive damages in case of negligence - some multiple - let's say 5 time the amount of (1) plus (2) above.

Incentives for improved process. What is the worst thing about health care for many people? Having to wait around is certainly up there. How do we fix that? Free markets by nature create efficiency. How about posting prices for everything up front. Ever ask a doctor about the fees? The doctor might not know! Now, if you get a better deal, you get something in return - perhaps points that you can redeem for lower cost insurance - i.e. you still get covered, you don't have to do anything, but if you can you benefit directly! what if everyone did that?

Care for those who cannot pay. Well the first thing would be a simple means test, but basically if the vast majority are covered it becomes easier to afford overheads to cover the rest. How to do this without people taking advantage? Well first, if you can't pay you wait if your condition is same as others. If it is really bad, OK maybe you go first - but if someday you are able to pay, you pay back that first. Charities cover people all the time at no cost to the taxpayer. . .I'm sure people have good ideas. If you want want to be a do-gooder softie at the rest of us taxpayers? Well let's say there are 15M in the US who really don't have insurance - this is based on data that of the 45M uninsured in the US, 15M don't want it (because they can afford it) and 15M are already eligible for Medicare so let's assume they get that. Just give the rest one time $2000 each of insurance for a year. That's $30B a year. Put a program in place to wean them off that over time. . .that's a lot less than $1.4T and doesn't change anything for anyone else.

How hard would it be to legislate this? Less than 100 pages? Would people understand it? Worth a try right?

How about the analogy: We offer food stamps to those who need them without changing how other people buy food.

If that's not good enough, well just look up alternative GOP proposals that have been out there over a year now. That's what the GOP means by start over. Obama should listen like he said he would.