Congratulations (Suckers!)

I haven't posted for a while, and no it is not because I am deep depression about Obama's election to the US Presidency! I was actually in New York City during the election. There is something deeply moving about the US election process where every voter gets to choose who he or she feels will be the best president. Obama won and he will be President. McCain conceded graciously and Bush is doing his duty to ensure a smooth transition. That's part of what makes America great. 

First, how did Obama win? I think Charles Krauthammer nailed it:

1) The financial crisis put the previous administration and party in a no-win position. McCain had almost no chance at recovering from that regardless of the objective facts. 

2) The choice of Palin for VP, while it energized the base, completely undermined the argument that Obama had no experience. Although personally I would say that Palin had more executive experience than Obama, Biden, and McCain combined, the fact that McCain is in that list proves the point. 

3) Obama ran a brilliant campaign. Just ask Hillary! Obama used tried and true basic organizing techniques to put together a coalition that put him well over the edge in key battleground states. That's how a 6 point lead in the popular vote turns into a nearly 2 to 1 electoral college victory. 

But now what? First the party, not the hangover. The other part of Obama's victory is that he let voters project their hopes and dreams on him without agreeing or committing to the position. There will now be a lot of disappointment, especially on the far left. Already the foreign policy team is looking somewhat hawkish. After all, both Hillary and Biden voted for the Iraq war, and Hillary was always the tougher one on Iran. On the economic front, Greithner looks like a seasoned Treasury veteran who could even make Paulson look like an amateur (and by the way, he certainly looks amateurish now!) And can you imagine if Omaba actually keeps Gates on at Defense?

Rahm Emanuel will keep the left in Congress in check. It's almost if Obama knows instinctively that his biggest challenge will not be a weakend Republican party, but rather senior Democrats in Congress who still see him as the new guy. Talented for sure, but nowhere near as astute and experienced as all of them! 

Is this a good thing? Well I hope Obama does well. I for one will certainly try to avoid Obama derangement syndrome. But equally, I will treat him first as someone whose words cannot be trusted. I will judge him on his actions. As well we all should.