Sunday, January 13, 2008

Bloggers Check the Math - The MSM Narrative Fails Again

Here is a good example of checking the data to challenge the New York Times on the number of murders caused by troops returning from Iraq.

Unfortunately for the NYT, the data (and the math) do not support the narrative the NYT is trying to push.

[Update 1/14 11:45 JST: more debunking of the NYT article is here Here. Furthermore, the Japan Times published the article in its Jan 14 issue, without bothering to check any of the data].

Another classic example is the now discredited study in Lancet that 650,000 Iraqi's have died since 2003 as a result of the war. (By the way, guess who funded that study?)

This doesn't mean that those deaths weren't tragic in themselves, and perhaps even 151,000 was too many - but my point here is that the facts deserve respect. It is a disservice to all who died to inflate the numbers beyond what they are, thereby diminishing the sacrifice made those who perished.

And here is more on Iraq numbers. Basically, it was much worse under Saddam especially if you consider Saddam's aggressions against Iran and Kuwait. And as some of the comments note, a key factor in the 151,000 deaths since the US invasion is the sectarian violence promoted by Al-Qaeda - in other words the enemy that the US military and Iraqis are trying to stop.

As for Global Warning, well here's a 'feast for cherry pickers'. Bottom line is that there isn't enough data to prove or disprove the IPCC's temperature predictions over the last 7 years, or indeed to determine whether there is a trend at all. It looks to me that temperatures are fluctuating within historical ranges. There is no correlation with CO2 trends (which are increasing). What we do know now is that the main computer models that predict temperature change due to greenhouse gases, to not yet fit the historical data. Given that, why should we expect them to predict the future?

Put another way, would you give your money to a fund manager, who has a computer model for picking stocks, that doesn't work when compared to past market data?